LBDG · Scenarios & Impact
Disclosure Impact Matrix
Direction is certain. Velocity is not. Your preparedness level determines where your organization stands when each disclosure threshold is crossed.
Disclosure path — direction certain, velocity unknown
A
B1
B2
C — Structural Shift
Scenario A
UAP origin officially attributed to NHI. No crafts, tech or biologics confirmed.
Scenario B1
Crash retrieval confirmed. No technology mastered or disclosed.
Scenario B2
Partial reverse engineering confirmed. Tech held as national asset.
Scenario C
Confirmed ongoing contact with non-human intelligence.
Prepared
Protocols in place. Board-level readiness. Gradual disclosure absorbed into planning.
Manageable
Holding statement issued within H+1. Board briefed within H+4. No internal confusion, no media scrambling.
Manageable
Sector exposure pre-mapped. Treasury triggers pre-authorized. Capital allocation decisions made within H+24, not weeks.
Disruptive
Energy/materials exposure already audited. Board reviews repricing scenarios same week. No emergency restructuring needed.
Transformative
Crisis governance activated on schedule. Existing playbooks adapted, not built from scratch. Leadership retains decision authority throughout.
Partial
Awareness growing. Some protocols exist. Governments behind curve.
Current state.
Manageable
Comms team scrambles for 48h before stabilizing. Some internal confusion. No reputational damage if response lands within the week.
Disruptive
Finance team builds exposure analysis reactively. Board requests emergency briefing. Capital decisions delayed 1-2 weeks vs prepared peers.
Transformative
Board convenes emergency sessions without a pre-built framework. Decision authority unclear. External advisors brought in under time pressure.
Systemic
Existing governance structures strain under decision volume. No clear chain of command for crisis-scale choices. Leadership fatigue sets in within days.
Unprepared
No protocols. Complete surprise. No board-level readiness. No playbook exists.
Disruptive
No holding statement exists. Employees and stakeholders learn from external media first. Leadership response is reactive and inconsistent across channels.
Transformative
No one owns the decision. CFO and board discover exposure gaps in real time. External counsel and advisors engaged under maximum time pressure.
Systemic
No existing framework for the scale of decisions required. Leadership turnover risk rises. Operational paralysis while basic questions get answered for the first time.
Existential
No functioning decision structure exists for this scale of disruption. Organizational continuity itself becomes the open question, independent of sector or size.
Governance agility as a modifier
A board that takes three weeks to approve a press release shifts your effective position downward on the preparedness axis — regardless of which protocols exist on paper. Preparedness is not just having the playbook. It is the speed at which your organization can activate it.
The velocity variable
The faster disclosure moves from A to C, the less time organizations have to climb the preparedness axis. An abrupt jump — leak, arrival, uncontrolled event — compresses that window to days. You cannot control the scenario. You can only control where you stand on the Y axis when each threshold is crossed.
Sector exposure
How is your industry affected?
Exposure varies significantly by sector and scenario. Cross-reference with the matrix above to identify your organization's position.
Three probable trajectories
Where is the world heading — and how fast?
Current trajectory
World is at A/Partial today — PURSUE releases ongoing. Gradual drift toward B1 over 12-24 months. Organizations that act now move up the Y axis before the next threshold is crossed.
Ideal trajectory
Preparedness grows faster than disclosure intensity. Organizations stay in green/yellow even as scenarios escalate. Requires action before the next tranche — not after.
Catastrophic trajectory
Abrupt jump to C with world at Unprepared — arrival scenario, uncontrolled leak, or intelligence failure. Bottom-right cell. No playbook exists. This is the scenario that justifies building the infrastructure now.
From matrix to action
Identify your scenario. Access the right toolkit.
Each toolkit maps directly to the matrix. Start where you are.
DVI 3+ — Monitor
HR Toolkit
Workforce readiness, psychological protocols, internal comms.
DVI 5+ — Readiness
Finance Toolkit
Asset rotation, sector exposure, treasury protocols.
DVI 5+ — Readiness
Communications Toolkit
Stakeholder messaging, crisis comms, media frameworks.
DVI 5+ — Readiness
Legal & Compliance
Reg FD / AMF obligations, disclosure triggers, record management.
DVI 5+ — Readiness
Leadership & Board
Board-level governance, decision authority matrix, scenario planning.
DVI 7+ — Activation
Marketing Toolkit
Demand model review, campaign pause/adapt, brand narrative.
DVI 7+ — Activation
Supply Chain Toolkit
Supplier exposure mapping, demand surge, logistics continuity.
DVI 7+ — Activation
Investor Relations
Investor call scripts, analyst FAQ, SEC/AMF filing obligations.